Research Methodology
Quality first, valuation second, price always. Every conclusion is framed for a medium-risk, long-only investor with a three-to-five-year horizon.
Scoring Framework
| Factor | Weight | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | 25% | Moat, customer value, resilience and management quality |
| Growth & operating leverage | 20% | Revenue, earnings, reinvestment runway and margin progression |
| Valuation & expected return | 20% | Normalised earnings, fair value, dividends and scenario IRR |
| Capital allocation | 15% | ROIC, dividends, buybacks, M&A and balance-sheet discipline |
| Downside protection | 10% | Leverage, cyclicality, concentration and valuation support |
| Thesis clarity | 10% | A specific, falsifiable reason the investment should work |
Score Guide
5 — Strong: materially above average with evidence.
3 — Average: acceptable but not differentiated.
1 — Weak: materially below average or structurally impaired.
Expected Return
Base, bear and bull cases combine normalised earnings, distributions, capital allocation and an explicit exit valuation. Each analysis records the market price and date used.
Source Policy
Prefer company filings, investor presentations and regulatory disclosures. Secondary research is used to challenge or supplement—not replace—primary evidence.
Revision Policy
Old conclusions are not silently erased. Material changes are recorded in the decision journal with the reason, evidence and revised action.
Portfolio Fit
The best standalone investment is not automatically the best portfolio addition. Currency, sector, country, leverage and correlation are considered separately.